Predictions 2000

January 18, 2000

I'm glad to be back from Cuba, and I hope it's not too late for my year 2000 predictions. First, I need to score my predictions made last year. I think I was too optimistic. In the face of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, I thought the President would be desperate to do some big things to help improve his legacy. I was just dreaming. I expected meaningful tax relief, a fix for Social Security and Medicare. It could have been the "deal of the decade." But there was no deal. I was right wen I said that the Freedom to Farm bill would not be altered. I predicted $40 hogs and although we didn't quite get there, we came close. A huge improvement over fall 1998. I said, "the Y2K problem would prove to be the most over rated problem for the year." It sure was!

Now, what about year 2000 -- the new millennium? Freedom to Farm will not be altered, but Congress to the rescue. Farmer support checks will be coming in just in time for next falls election. The GMO debate will continue without resolution. Interest rates are on the rise but should top out before year's end. On the trade front, the President wants the Congress to vote early on admitting China to the World Trade Organization. Not likely! The Democrats don't want to vote on China WTO. Organized labor is against it. Teamster President James Hoffa said, "We will flood every congressional office with phone calls, letters and visits." Also, a very important piece of trade legislation ending the unilateral food embargoes that deny us markets should pass this year. Finally, Politics. George W. Gush and Al Gore to square off next November. Bush, the winner. Get your spirits up. This is the year the farm economy turns the corner.