Presidential Campaign

August 18, 2004

I keep getting the same question over and over again. "What is your take on the Presidential Election?"

In the first place, most of the poles say we have a dead heat -- Kerry-Bush-Bush-Kerry. I know the Olympics were fun to watch, but so is the Presidential race. We are just on the eve of the Republican Convention. If Bush gets the same bounce that Kerry got they will still be dead even after the convention. I don't expect President Bush to come forward with very much that is new. Perhaps some ideas on helping our economy that has hit a "rough patch" as the President calls it. We have watched President Bush for over 3 years and have a pretty good idea of who he is and where he stands. He has some strong supporters and some bitter enemies.

John Kerry, on the other hand, was way over in left field in the Democratic primary. He had to play to the left otherwise they might have stayed with Howard Dean. But now, John Kerry has forgotten about the never to be found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and embraced the war. He will stay the course, win the war and bring the allies along. That is what Kerry is saying now. My best guess is that if he wins in November, he will swing back to the liberal side, which is where his heart is. As I think about this from a farmer's point of view, Kerry is much more a Taxer than a Tax Cutter. He is tight with the environmental crowd led by his Hollywood friends.

When it comes to farm programs, I don't think he has a strong opinion. Congress will drive those decisions no matter who wins the election.

Let's look at Trade. Kerry is not the free trader that President Clinton was, and probably will be pushed by his party to demand labor and environmental standards that will make it much more difficult to reach agreement in the WTO.

Who we choose as our President the next four years will make a difference. And I still say the outcome still depends on the economy, the war, and some unknown that I cannot predict.

Until next week, I am Jack Block from Washington.